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03/12/2009 - Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The series called Bedlam has turned the Big 12 Tournament into exactly that, as James Anderson's two free throws with 2.3 seconds to play capped the scoring in Oklahoma State's wild and wacky 71-70 victory over arch-rival No.6 Oklahoma in the conference quarterfinals at the Ford Center.
The conference quarterfinals began with two of the nation's best teams on what appeared to be a collision course for a meeting in the championship game. Three games into Thursday's action, both Kansas and Oklahoma will spend the rest of the weekend away from Oklahoma City. The Jayhawks fell to ninth-seeded Baylor earlier on Thursday.
The Cowboys (22-10), who lost both regular-season meetings with the Sooners, played with confidence from the outset against a club that seemed to look nothing like the unit that began the season with a 25-1 mark and the nation's top ranking.
Since then, All-American candidate Blake Griffin has been sidelined for a period of time and the Sooners (27-5) have now lost four of six entering the NCAA Tournament.
Byron Eaton slashed his way to the basket against multiple defenses, scoring 16 points with seven assists. The final of his six field goals with 1:01 left gave the Cowboys a 68-66 edge. Tony Crocker's two free throws squared the contest with 47.3 seconds left, before Eaton again entered the lane at will and drew a foul. He made the first but misfired off the back rim on the second for a one-point edge.
Crocker was at it again off a broken play, finishing off the glass for a 70-69 lead with 14.2 ticks to go. Oklahoma State decided against the timeout and instead let Eaton create off the dribble, leading to a scrum in the lane and a whistle on Anderson's putback attempt with 2.3 seconds left.
The 84 percent foul shooter calmly sank both for the 71-70 game. However, that wasn't the end of the nip-and-tuck affair.
Taylor Griffin's three-quarter-court baseball heave to Blake Griffin allowed the star forward to turn and fire a three-pointer that went off the side of the backboard. Griffin's only three-point attempt capped a 17-point, 19- rebound performance.
Willie Warren flew in from the strong side, but his lunging follow didn't find the bottom of the net, as the Cowboys slapped the basketball out toward midcourt.
How long did the final sequence last? It lasted at least 2.3 seconds according to officials, as the clock never started on Blake Griffin's catch, and only started when Warren put his hands on the follow-up.
The whistle finally blew with 0.8 ticks to play, but after a conference in front of monitors, the officials determined the contest had come to an end.
Keiton Page and Terrel Harris joined Eaton in Oklahoma State's three-guard attack, scoring 15 and 13 points respectively. Obi Muonelo added 12 points and seven rebounds, while Anderson's two free throws at the end pushed him into double digits with 11 points. The Cowboys will get the Missouri-Texas Tech winner in the semifinals.
Austin Johnson and Warren each scored 13 points for the Sooners in defeat.
The Sooners had an early 11-6 edge that quickly turned into a 19-18 deficit after the first of Harris' three treys. Blake Griffin's layup capped an 8-0 spurt moments later for a 27-21 advantage -- Oklahoma's largest edge of the contest.
Oklahoma led 34-33 after 20 minutes of game action, but the Cowboys rolled to a 49-41 lead on the heels off a 13-1 surge capped by Eaton's lay-in. Juan Patillo's jam nearing the six-minute mark brought the Sooners back even, 62-62, and the game remained tight from that point forward.
Game Notes
The Cowboys shot 41.4 percent from the floor, but made nine three-pointers to help the cause...The Sooners made 48.8 percent of their shots, yet finished just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc and committed 19 turnovers that turned into 24 Cowboys points...The Cowboys, already in position for an at-large berth, last won the league's automatic bid in 2005.
<< Ebanks, West Virginia down Pitt
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Freshman Devin Ebanks notched career-highs
with 20 points and eight rebounds to lead the West Virginia Mountaineers to an
unlikely 74-60 victory over the second-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers in the
quarter
<< Memphis pulls away from Tulane in C-USA quarters
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shawn Taggart scored a game-high 19 points and
grabbed nine rebounds, as fourth-ranked Memphis started their journey for a
fourth straight Conference USA Tournament championship with a 51-41 win over
Tulane
<< Ovechkin and Caps slip past Philly
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Ovechkin notched his 48th goal of the
season and Jose Theodore made 35 saves to lead Washington over Philadelphia,
2-1, at Wachovia Center.
Brooks Laich had the other goal for the Capitals, who h
<< Browns sign LB Bowens, release OT Shaffer
Berea, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns made a couple of moves
Thursday, signing free agent linebacker David Bowens and releasing offensive
tackle Kevin Shaffer.
Bowens is a 10-year NFL veteran and spent the last two sea
Haynesworth indicted on driving charges >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Redskins defensive tackle Albert
Haynesworth was reportedly indicted on a pair of misdemeanor driving charges
related to a December 13 incident.
The Tennessean reported Thursday that Haynesw
Malone and Lighting down Leafs >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Malone registered a goal and an assist and
Martin St. Louis picked up the game-winner in the second period, as the Tampa
Bay Lightning scored four unanswered goals to post a 4-1 victory over the
Toronto
Gomez leads Rangers past Predators >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Gomez had a goal and two assists as the
New York Rangers skated past the Nashville Predators, 4-2, at Sommet Center.
Marc Staal and Fredrik Sjostrom each had a goal while Henrik Lundqvist stopped
19 sho
Jokinen carries Flames to shootout win over Red Wings >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Olli Jokinen scored twice in regulation and
provided the winner in the shootout, as the Calgary Flames rallied from a
three-goal deficit to defeat the Detroit Red Wings, 6-5, at Joe Louis Arena.
Jamie
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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